What does it mean that the global economic barometer “Dr. Copper” retreated during the year?
What does it mean that the global economic barometer “Dr. Copper” gave up the year’s gains?
Since May, investors’ height of the global economic outlook has affected almost all asset types, and industrial metals, crude oil and the stock market have not been spared.
The international copper price, which is regarded as a barometer of the global economy, has started a continuous adjustment mode since it broke through the year ‘s high of US $ 6,600 / ton on April 18. The weekly record of five consecutive overcasts and once fell below US $ 5900 / tonMark, the maximum range fell nearly 11%.
Initially, the overwhelming decline in copper prices was a change in the trading environment and the global economic outlook that weighed on the demand for industrial metals.
Judging from the recent performance of US stocks, the increased volatility within the day also reflects the intensification of future economic growth. If negative expectations continue, US stocks will continue to face adjustment pressure.
Copper prices have fallen back to their initial lows as an important raw material used extensively in construction and manufacturing. The price trend of copper is often a barometer of the health of the global economy.
In the first two months of this year, industrial metals represented by copper have ushered in a general rise, with an average increase of more than 10%.
At the time, in the context of the world’s fastest economic growth, the Fed’s reserves and the pace of interest rates temporarily halted the strong U.S. dollar, world trade improved, and China’s steady growth measures provided an opportunity for potential demand recovery.
However, it took only one month for investors to turn the bulls back, the copper price fell back to its early lows, and the continued deterioration of the technology pattern also indicates that the copper price has not bottomed in the short term.
The expected distortion of the trading environment is one of the reasons for the continued weakness in copper prices.
On May 20, the latest issue of the World Trade Outlook Index (WTOI) released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) was 96.
3, well below the index’s benchmark value of 100, indicating that trade growth continued to decline in the first half of 2019.
WTO economists predict that the volume of merchandise trade in 2019 will be converted to 3% in 2018 and further replace2.
Based on statistics from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on trade flows of Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal found that global export channels, exports to developed economies and exports to the European Union are all approaching or hitting their lowest levels since 2009, almost the same as during the financial crisis.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the latest foreign trade data released this week by Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Singapore shows a trend of continued deterioration.
The economic recovery of various countries is still struggling. The OECD released the “Global Economic Outlook Report” on May 21, which predicts that the global economic growth rate in 2019 will be 3 from last year’s forecast.
9% down to 3.
1% believe that trade tensions have dragged down the recovery of economies and will continue to threaten investment and growth.
At the same time, global manufacturing activity continued to be sluggish, with the euro zone ‘s manufacturing PMI changing for the first time in May47.
7. For four consecutive months, it was below the Rongkuang line. The situation of Germany, the “locomotive” of the European economy, was not optimistic. In May, the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI index unexpectedly rose to 50.
9, the lowest since September 2009.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at IHS Markit, said the eurozone economy is still in a doldrums, while the economy is spreading from manufacturing to services.
The decline of the US manufacturing industry is still continuing, so the speed of economic expansion may be extended to less than 2%.
In recent weeks, bearish bets on copper by hedge funds and other speculative investors have continued to rise.
The CFTC data from the US Commodity Futures Commission showed that net short positions in COMEX copper futures and bills held by speculators for the 武汉夜生活网 week of May 21 increased by 1710 contracts to 36,967 contracts, setting a new high since the end of January.
The London Metal Exchange is also dominated by shorts, and the net short position has risen to 7%, a near seven-month high.
US stock market adjustment pressure still exists in the three major US stock indexes, the Dow has fallen for five consecutive weeks, a record of continuous decline since 2011, the Nasdaq and the S & P 500 have recorded three consecutive weekly overcast, this week’s stock index daily amplitude increasedBig also reflects the worry of investors.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey of fund managers in May shows that more than 34% of nearly 250 dieters said they have adopted risk hedging measures in response to abnormal changes in the stock market that may occur in the next three months. This ratio also created Bank of AmericaProspects since Merrill Lynch began its preliminary research in 2012.
As the basis of the trend of the US stock market, the US economy is facing the risk of a decline in growth. Long- and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds have experienced a reversal of yields after two months, triggering the solution of potential recession risks. Until the close on May 24, threeThe monthly US Treasury yield was reported at 2.
349%, 10-year US Treasury yield was reported at 2.
324%, the lowest since 2017.
Except for the May manufacturing PMI index, which reached a nine-year low, the US durable goods orders in April were at the 2nd position.
1%, industrial carbonic acid ring than formaldehyde 0.
5%, less than market expectations, the manufacturing sector has been negative for four consecutive months.
The producer price index PPI increased by 2 year-on-year in April.
4%, an 11-month low, the growth rate is unlikely to improve in the short term, the US retail sales in April position 0.
2%, suggesting that US consumer spending may fall into a downturn in the second quarter. Mitsubishi UFJ Bank chief economist Rupki (Chris Rupki) pointed out that due to the reduction of economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks, since the second quarter of the United States, the net investment of companies is decreasing, business confidenceSpread in manufacturing.
As some surveys show, a large number of corporate executives believe that the possibility of economic growth is increasing, so they cancelled orders in March and reduced equipment orders in April.
JP Morgan Chase released the latest forecast report on May 24th, forecasting the growth rate of US GDP in the second quarter from 2 in the previous period.
25% is effectively reduced to 1%, which is much lower than 3 in the first quarter.
2% GDP growth.
Xiao Mo believes that the latest durable goods orders and retail data are very bad, indicating that economic growth in the second quarter will increase from the previous quarter, and that the probability of interest rate cuts caused by downward risk growth is rising.
Civilian Goldman Sachs expects the US economy to grow from 1 in the second quarter.
5% down to 1.
At 3%, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP model now predicts the same.
Changes in sector performance and stock market capital flows have shown changes in investor sentiment. In the past five months, with the adjustment of the S & P 500 Index, the chip semiconductor sector has suffered from the accumulation of selling weight, and companies with a high degree of trade correlation have beenSpread, funds began to shift from cyclical stocks to defensive stocks to avoid risks.
However, with the panic and panic decline in the fourth quarter of last year, investors’ risk aversion is still at a relatively low level. If the trade outlook and the global economic outlook continue to deteriorate, perhaps the short-term US stock market adjustment has not ended.