PetroChina (601857) Third Quarterly Report Review: Performance Exceeds Expectation Exploration Results Decline MoM
This report reads: The operating profit of the exploration sector has decreased sequentially, and the expected volume and price of the natural gas sector have risen in the fourth quarter.
青岛夜网 Investment points: downgrade to cautious overweight rating and lower target price to 6.
As the company’s downstream segment refining and sales competition intensifies, we lower the company’s EPS to 0 in 2019-2021.
31 and 0.
34 yuan (original value 0.
41 and 0.
45 yuan), with a decrease of 17%, 32% and 32%, corresponding to PE of 20/19/17.
The company’s profitability has dropped, giving it 1 PB in 2019, and lowering its target price to 6.
68 yuan, downgraded to a prudent overweight level.
The performance of the exploration sector increased each year and decreased month-on-month.
The company’s performance was lower than our expectations, and the company’s exploration segment achieved operating profit of RMB769 in the first three quarters of 2019.
350,000 yuan, an annual increase of 32.
9%, but a drop of 41% from the previous month, natural gas production maintained a rapid growth, increasing by 8 per year.
7%, we judge that the decline in the performance of the exploration sector is mainly caused by two factors. First, the decline in crude oil price Q3 relative to Q2, which affects profits;
Breaking through the newly discovered reserves in the future, the company’s performance in the exploration sector has been promoted.
The refining and selling segment was significantly affected by the industry’s downturn.
With the accelerated production of large refining and chemical companies in the third quarter, the overall prosperity of the refining and chemical industry declined, competition became more intense, and the prices of chemical products and refined oil continued to decline.
The company’s operating profit in the refining and chemical segment decreased by 89%; the operating profit in the chemical segment decreased by 58%, mainly due to the continuous decline in the spread of refined oil and chemicals.
The company’s sales segment, due to intensified competition and other factors, continued to decline in profits, interrupted by a single quarter, fell by 93%.
The natural gas sector entered the peak demand season in the fourth quarter.
The natural gas segment realized operating profit of RMB219.
50 ppm, an increase of ten years.
3%, but imported gas is expected to be 217.
64 ppm, an increase of RMB 18 over the same period of the previous year.
The company’s initial gas concentration is initially due to the impact of exchange rates, which has led to an increase in the cost of natural gas purchases, while the realized price of domestic gas has increased, the arrival of the conversion heating season, increased demand, increased sales prices, and the performance of the natural gas sector will increase.
Risk reminder: Oil prices have fallen sharply, and the national pipeline company has fallen short of expectations.