State Laojiao (000568): The Interim Report will create another double-billion mark in the near future
Investment Highlights Event: The company achieved revenue of 80 in the first half of 2019.
13 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.
81%, net profit attributable to mothers27.
500,000 yuan, an increase of 39 in ten years.
80%, basic profit income 1.
88 yuan, an annual increase of 39.
Performance exceeded expectations, Guojiao, special song two-wheel drive.
19Q2 company income and net profit growth rate was 26.
01% and 35.
98%, the performance exceeded market expectations, mainly due to the national cellar, the volume and price of special song rose, and the price increase of high-end wine driven profit growth.
In 2Q19, the company’s advance receipts reached 13.
9.2 billion, an increase of 8 from the previous month.
24%, an annual increase of 27.
24%, taking into account the advance income factor, the actual performance is better.
By product: 1) 19H1 premium 43 income.
13 ppm, an increase of 30 in ten years.
47%, gross margin increased by 0.
53pct, the company followed the price increase in the first half of the year, and the volume and price rose together to drive the continuous growth of Guojiao 1573.
2) Revenue from mid-range wines22.
24 ppm, an increase of 35 in ten years.
14%, gross margin increased by 5.
03pct. Among them, the growth rate of special song products is expected to be about 30% -40%, accounting for about 80% of mid-range wines. The old-fashioned special song is used as a channel product. It is expected that the price increase contribution will be more significant in the first half of the year.With this, the 60th edition of Special Songs continues to focus on group purchases and maintain rapid growth through word-of-mouth marketing. Preserved wines are still in the adjustment period, and the number of products is expected to increase. The products are mainly promoted for 60 and 90 years.
3) Low-grade alcohol income13.
840,000 yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.
68%, gross margin increased by 6.
58pct, low-grade wine is also in the channel and organizational structure adjustment. We believe that price increases have hedged sales substitution, and it is expected to usher in improvement next year.
In terms of different markets, we expect that the growth rate of traditional dominant markets such as Southwest and North China will be relatively stable. The East China market will continue to perform 佛山桑拿网 well after the expansion, and the South China market needs further development.
Gross profit margin increased significantly, and profitability further improved.
The company’s gross profit margin was 80 in 19Q2.
30%, a substantial increase of 5 per year.
11pct, allowing further upward movement of product structure, the proportion of national cellars increased by 5 from the end of 18th.
06pct to 53.
91%, once contributed from the price increase of national cellars, time-honored products and other products; the cost was 25 during the period.
69%, an increase of one year.
53pct, of which selling expenses cost 21.
67%, an increase of 2 a year.
72pct, mainly because the company has increased the support for the terminal, pay more attention to the terminal cultivation work than before; the management cost is reduced.21%, down by 1 every year.
83pct, financial 成都桑拿网 expenses cost -1.
19%, a year up 0.
64 points; taxes and surcharges up to 14.
21%, an increase of 1 per year.
87pct, mainly due to the partial increase in the consumption tax levy after the product price increase; net interest rate was 31.
88%, increase by 1 every year.
57 points, profitability further improved.
2Q19 The company’s net cash flow from operating activities was 11.
$ 4.6 billion, a sharp increase previously, with outstanding cash flow performance.
The initial income growth is expected to be close to the planned upper limit, and the decisive victory of the old cellar will accelerate.
Laojiao, as the three companies with the most flexible mechanisms in high-end wines, has outstanding brand marketing capabilities. Its volume and price planning has always followed strategies, and its ability to resist risks and adjust is stronger, which will bring favorable foundation for long-term development.
From the initial point of view, 2019 is the year of the company’s 13th Five-Year Strategy’s three-year sprint period. The planned revenue will increase by 15% -25%. The company will definitely strive to achieve more than 20% growth. We think this goal is expected to be successfully achieved.: At least, according to the performance of existing channels, the national cellar stacking price has initially risen to more than 790 yuan, and there is still an upward trend. The enthusiasm for stocking in the Mid-Autumn Festival in Hunan and other places is higher, and the performance in the second quarter is better; further, the price of Maowu continued to riseThe transaction price of the Puwu terminal has exceeded 1,000 yuan, which provides enough space for the national cellar price to rise.
Taken together, we expect to achieve the expected revenue growth and accelerate the realization of the maximum plan. The profit performance will improve better under the drive of price increases and product structure upgrades. We continue to be optimistic that the company will achieve the two-wheel drive of the state reserve and special song.Performance growth.
Investment suggestion: Maintain “Buy” rating.
We adjust our profit forecast and expect the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 to be 161.
59 trillion, an increase of 23 in half a year.
71% / 18.
90% / 17.
47%; net profit is 18.
500,000 yuan, an increase of 34 in ten years.
91% / 24.
61% / 22.
27%, corresponding to 3 EPS.
Risk warnings: San Gong’s consumption restrictions will increase; competition for high-end wine will increase; food quality accidents.