Moutai, Guizhou (600519): Growing non-demand impact maintains sustainable performance expectations

Moutai, Guizhou (600519): Growing non-demand impact maintains sustainable performance expectations

Moutai, Guizhou (600519): Growing non-demand impact maintains sustainable performance expectations
Event: Maotai announced its semi-annual report for 2019, achieving a total revenue of 411 in the first half of the year.7 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.8%; net profit attributable to mother is 199.50,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.6%; among them, Q2 realized income of 186.900 million, an increase of 10 in ten years.9%; net profit attributable to mother was 87.30 ppm, an increase of 20 in ten years.3%; complete base wine production 4.53 Initially, the output of Moutai base wine was 3.44 years, production of series of wine-based wines.09 baseline; the growth rate of Q2 has improved under the background of a high base, without affecting the gradual performance goals.The growth rate of revenue and net profit in Q2 2019 was as high as 45.6% / 41.5%, the restructuring company’s channel adjustment affected the confirmation of shipments.The company claims that the shipment volume in the first half of the year has completed half of the expected task, and it is expected that the company’s statement in the first half of the year confirms that the shipment volume is 1.Over 55 years of age, revenue growth is mainly driven by the increase in average price; in the second half of the year, direct sales are expected to increase, and revenue growth is expected to accelerate.The number of Moutai dealers decreased by 437 in Q1 and the number of Moutai dealers decreased by approximately 78 in Q2. It is expected that the dealer adjustment will be nearing completion.Direct sales accounted for only 3 in the first half of the year.9% every year last year 7.3% decreased significantly.The current expected price control of the company is expected to gradually implement the direct sales plan in the second half of the year. In the second half of the year, direct sales are expected to increase, and revenue growth is expected to accelerate; the ton price will increase, and profitability will increase steadily.Gross profit margin in the first half of 91.9%, a year to raise 0.9%, mainly benefiting from the increase in the price of tons of wine.In the first half of the year, channel surveys showed that Feitian Moutai was in short supply and non-standard alcohol was heavy.The company’s strategy for series wines changed from “quantity” to “quality”. The number of Q2 series wine dealers decreased by 494, and the revenue growth rate of series wines in the first half of the year was obviously 166%; sales expense ratio decreases by 1 every year.4% to 4.8%, which is expected to benefit from a reduction in the cost of wine series; advance receipts increase, and cash flow performance is better.Advance receipts in the first half of the year increased by 23 from the end of last year.200 million, an increase of 8 from the previous month.700 million, related to the company’s June advance payment policy; the first half of sales 433.30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 25.2%; net operating cash flow 240.90,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.8%; Feitian Maotai’s approval price is firm, and it is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year.At present, the Feitian Moutai bonus price is around 2050-2100 yuan. In June, the supply of Moutai liquor increased but the approval price did not drop significantly, indicating strong demand.Against the background of the expected very limited increase in the volume of Moutai sales, it is expected that there will be limited room for the approval price to fall in the second half of the year; investment advice: maintain the “overweight” rating.Moutai is still the leader in the sector with the most deterministic internal performance and the strongest demand. The company’s quarterly performance changes do not affect its long-term investment logic. We expect the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 to be 899/1025/1167 trillion.Yearly growth rate 16.5%, 14.1%, 13.8%; net profit attributable to mothers was 437.3 / 504/587 billion, exceeding the growth rate of 24.1%, 15.5%, 16.4%; corresponding EPS is 34.77/40.16/46.75 yuan; risk warning: severe economic downturn; industry 杭州夜网论坛 policy risks; food safety incidents;